Prediction market overview: Google employee charged with insider trading; CFTC approves unique crypto trading

(AsiaGameHub) –   Several weeks after a U.S. Army Special Forces member was indicted for insider trading on prediction markets, a Google employee is the most recent individual to face charges for using confidential information to profit from these emerging platforms.

Michele Spagnuolo, who allegedly traded under the Polymarket account “AlphaRaccoon”, faces multiple insider trading-related charges in Manhattan. According to prosecutors, the charges stem from his purported scheme to misappropriate confidential Google data and use it to place a series of profitable Google-focused trades on the prediction market.

Prosecutors claim Spagnuolo accessed a Google software tool that provided real-time insights into its “Year in Search” rankings. Over a three-month period ending in December 2024, he is accused of making at least 25 trades totaling $2.75 million on search-results markets. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York states the 36-year-old earned an illegal profit of at least $1.2 million from these trades, and indictments show he faces charges of commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering.

“Today’s charges reinforce a decades-old message: corporate insiders cannot use confidential business information to turn a profit in our markets,” said US Attorney Jay Clayton in a statement. “Insider trading compromises the integrity of our markets, and the American people want this greed-driven conduct investigated and prosecuted.”

On Friday, Kalshi hosted more than three dozen markets featuring event contracts related to Google. Most notably, Kalshi lists a contract for the top-searched person on Google this year. U.S. President Donald Trump leads with 17%, ahead of Bad Bunny (16%) and Elon Musk (10%). The market saw approximately $184,⁠000 in trading volume on Friday afternoon.

Kalshi Makes History as First to Secure Crypto “Perps” Approval

Friday also marked a milestone for Kalshi: it became the first U.S. company to gain regulatory approval for listing crypto perpetual futures on a prediction market. Commonly called “perps”, these derivatives let traders speculate on the future price of assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum without owning the underlying asset. A key appeal of “perps” is that they share traditional futures contract traits but have no expiration date.

Kalshi got the green light when the U.S. Commodity Futures Commission issued an approval order for the BTCPERP Contract—a perpetual contract tied to Bitcoin’s spot price—as a futures contract. CFTC Chair Michael Selig wrote on his X account that this action paves the way for “one of the most liquid segments of the crypto asset markets to exist within the U.S. regulatory framework.”

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour described the company’s prediction market success as the first chapter of its long-term goals. He noted Kalshi consistently works to fulfill its mission: “every important question about the world should have a market.” He further believes perpetual futures are the next chapter, removing a constraint in finance.

“If a prediction market is a photograph of what the world thinks right now, a perpetual is a film — continuously updated, never ending, always present,” he wrote in a statement.

Spurs’ Title Odds Rise Following Season-Saving Victory

Despite a decisive win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday night, the San Antonio Spurs still face long odds to win their first NBA title in 12 years.

In front of a raucous home crowd in San Antonio, the Spurs dominated the Thunder 118-97 in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals. This win pushed the defending champion Thunder to a decisive Game 7 on Saturday night. On Kalshi, San Antonio’s title-winning probability spiked to 27% as of Friday—up from 15% before the victory.

New York Knicks ticket holders appear to be the biggest beneficiaries of the Spurs’ win. Returning to the Finals for the first time in 27 years, the Knicks’ odds rose to 33% on Friday, an 11% increase from the previous day.

The Thunder’s defeat dropped their odds to 43%, a five-point decline. Victor Wembanyama led the Spurs on Thursday with 28 points and 10 rebounds—his ninth 20-10 game of the playoffs. This mark is the highest in the NBA playoffs since Nikola Jokic recorded 13 in 2023.

Odds for the Spurs’ 7’5” rangy center to win Finals MVP closely track the team’s title chances. Wembanyama ranked second on Friday at 28%, behind the Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (43%). Knicks guard Jalen Brunson is a close third at 27%.