UK Gambling Reforms Expected to Have Minimal Negative Economic Impact, Study Finds

(AsiaGameHub) –   A recent joint study found that stricter gambling regulations in the UK would result in only a minor economic downturn, as shifts in consumer spending help offset the decline in gambling revenues.

The research, conducted by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and the University of Glasgow, assessed the broader macroeconomic effects of the UK government’s proposed 2023 white paper reforms designed to reduce gross gambling yield (GGY).

The 2023 white paper anticipated an annual decrease in industry GGY ranging from £329 million to £812 million, with the focus primarily on the online gambling sector.

For their modelling, the NIESR-Glasgow team applied the upper estimate of an £812 million loss to evaluate aggregate economic impacts.

The study integrated three key approaches:

• Survey of regular gamblers: A baseline probability survey of 1,320 frequent gamblers informed the design of subsequent experiments.
• Stated-Preference Discrete Choice Experiment (SPDCE): Between May and June 2025, 804 gamblers were surveyed on how they would reallocate a hypothetical £50 monthly budget no longer spent on gambling across seven major spending categories.
• Input-Output (IO) economic modelling: Using 2022 UK Input-Output tables, researchers calculated both direct and indirect sectoral impacts resulting from changes in spending patterns.

The study did not account for potential improvements in health, wellbeing, or productivity, nor did it consider supply-side benefits arising from reduced gambling-related harm—factors that could further enhance economic outcomes.

Net loss amounts to just one-sixth of the white paper’s projection

According to their analysis, only around £134 million—approximately 16% of the total £812 million projected reduction—resulted in a net decline in UK output after factoring in redirected consumer spending.

The most common spending reallocations were toward essential goods and services, including food, drink, household shopping, home and personal items, as well as increased savings or debt repayment.

However, if some consumers shifted their freed funds toward unregulated or illegal gambling markets, the net economic loss would rise substantially. For instance, an 8% diversion to unlicensed platforms would increase the net loss to £189 million (23% of the gross loss), while a 27% shift would push it up to £317 million (39% of the gross loss).

Online gambling—which accounts for the majority of the sector’s GGY—has relatively lower domestic economic multipliers due to offshore supply chains. Reducing the assumed multiplier for the gambling sector by just 9–10% would eliminate the net loss altogether, potentially leading to a slight overall economic gain.

“We examined how people who gamble indicated they would adjust their spending if these reforms were implemented, and then modelled the wider economic implications,” said Katherine Simpson, lead researcher from the University of Glasgow.

“What we discovered is that most of the money doesn’t vanish—it gets redirected elsewhere, meaning the overall economic impact remains quite limited.”

Behavioural insights

Beyond economic modelling, the study also explored behavioural aspects.

The SPDCE participant group was younger and more likely to be employed, with a higher prevalence of problem gambling (37% scoring within the problem-gambling range compared to 8.6% in the general survey sample). Despite this, preferences for reallocating spending remained consistent regardless of gambling severity. According to figures from UK-based charity GamCare, nearly 2,000 individuals sought financial advice related to gambling issues in 2025.

Regarding unlicensed gambling, 73% of online gamblers stated they would not redirect their freed funds toward unregulated operators, with only 8.5% consistently choosing that option across experimental scenarios.

This follows reports from the UK Gambling Commission indicating that illegal gambling activities have become harder to monitor due to increased use of virtual private networks (VPNs). Data from Ofcom and app analytics firm Similarweb shows a spike in VPN usage beginning July 2025, stabilizing at approximately 40% above pre-July levels.

Adrian Pabst, deputy director at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, stressed that there is no inherent conflict between stronger regulation and economic growth.

“There is no necessary trade-off between enhanced regulation and greater economic growth. Our findings demonstrate that new gambling regulations will have a very small negative effect on the UK economy, while also offering opportunities for regular gamblers to save more or spend in other sectors.”

“Industry concerns about a severe blow to economic activity are exaggerated and overlook the wider social advantages of these regulatory changes.”